Fantasy Preview: UFC 81 Main Card
By Stephen Quinn
Who will become the Interim UFC Heavyweight Champion? Will Frank Mir show Brock Lesnar that success in the WWE doesn’t mean success in the UFC? Will Jeremy Horn’s decision to take his fight against Nate Marquardt on short notice affect Horn’s performance?
Which fighter will have their winning streak snapped when Ricardo Almeida and Rob Yundt square off against each other this Saturday? Will Tyson Griffin continue to move his way up the lightweight division ladder? On Saturday, all of these questions and more will be answered. UFC Fantasy players, read on for the UFC 81 main card breakdown.
Tim Sylvia vs. Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira
In this fight, two former champions will do battle. Former UFC champ Sylvia, consistently underestimated early in his career, has surprised many by amassing a 10-3 record in the Octagon against top competition. He faces one of the toughest challenges of his career in former PRIDE champion Nogueira, who is renowned for his ability to absorb punishment and yet find a way to defeat fighters who are clobbering him.
Sylvia (26-3), who had surgery to repair three bulging disks in his back last year, rebounded with an impressive win over highly-regarded Brandon Vera last October. In that fight, Sylvia put together a perfect game plan to beat Vera, a feared striker who is equally dangerous on the ground. It will be interesting to see Sylvia fight once again without any injuries to slow him down.
Nogueira looks to improve on the first time he entered the Octagon. Although Nogueira won his debut in the UFC against Heath Herring, it didn’t look like the same dominant fighter that fans in Japan grew accustomed to seeing. Nogueira (29-4-1), who has beaten top heavyweights in PRIDE, and was once considered the world’s best heavyweight, plans to add a UFC title to his list of accomplishments.
Both of these fighters match up extremely well with one another. Sylvia, known for his standup ability, will probably try to keep the fight standing for as long as possible. Although the 6-foot-8-inch Sylvia has the advantage on the feet, Nogueira will not be a pushover and is a decent boxer. The difference standing: Sylvia, when he is willing to take chances, has devastating kicks and one-punch knockout power. Nogueira does not. Nogueira’s chief domain is on the ground, where he holds an extreme advantage. But Sylvia, all 265 pounds of him, is awfully difficult to takedown. Nogueira is not Randy Couture when it comes to takedowns, but he will need to find a way to get the fight to the mat, where Sylvia’s size and long arms could become a liability.
However, in order for Nogueira to setup a takedown, he will need to trade, not only punches, with Sylvia, but kicks as well. In Nogueira’s last fight, he was sent to the canvas by a high kick from Heath Herring. Multiple high kick attempts will almost be certain when facing Tim Sylvia. Sylvia’s ground defense has grown exponentially, as he showed during a win over Jeff Monson. But Nogueira’s submissions, at least in MMA competition, are much more polished than Monson’s and will be much harder to defend.
Likely to go the distance? No
Method of finish? TKO
Frank Mir vs. Brock Lesnar
Is Brock Lesnar a UFC superstar in the making or a loudmouth who bit off more than he can chew by fighting a former UFC champion in only his second professional fight? We’re going to find out this Saturday when Lesnar, a former WWE star, battles Mir in Las Vegas.
Some of Lesnar’s training partners marvel at the former NCAA wrestling champ’s athleticism, work ethic, and potential. He weighs in the vicinity of 260 pounds, but is quicker and more agile than most 160-pounders. Coming into this fight, it is hard to determine exactly what Lesnar brings to the table, other than obvious brute strength. After years in a WWE ring, with its scripted battles, all eyes will be on Lesnar to see how he holds up when the punches, slams and submissions are real. He trains at Minnesota Martial Arts Academy, the same school that produced former UFC lightweight champion Sean Sherk. Lesnar is 1-0 in his mixed martial arts career, having triumphed in his first fight courtesy of a ground-and-pound TKO. The opponent then, South Korea’s Min Soo Kim, is a virtual unknown with a lackluster 4-6 record.
Mir (10-3), despite an up-and-down career, represents a huge step up in competition for Lesnar. The well-decorated Brazilian jiu-jitsu specialist will also be fighting in front of his home crowd. Lesnar, with his wrestling takedowns, could look to take the fight to the ground. This might be exactly where Mir wants to fight, given that Mir has looked comfortable fighting from his back in previous fights. The relative inexperience of Lesnar may lead him to making a mental mistake while in the top position. If that mistake is made, expect Mir to capitalize on it with a submission. Though Mir is not known as a stand-up fighter — he only has one knockout win on his resume — he may try to stay on his feet and test Lesnar there.
Mir, only 2-2 since suffering a broken femur in a motorcycle accident several years ago, recognizes that this may be his last chance to position himself for a title shot. He is coming off an impressive victory over Antoni Hardonk last year.
Likely to go the distance? No
Method of finish? TKO
Jeremy Horn vs. Nate Marquardt
Experience is something these two fighters have in common. With a combined record of 115-20-7, there isn’t much either of these two have not seen in their respective fighting careers. On Saturday, this experience will be put to the ultimate test. Both fighters know that the outcome of this fight will have lasting implications.
At times in Jeremy Horn’s career, he has shown a tendency to make his students the priority, instead of concentrating on his own career. This will not be the case when he steps foot into the Octagon this Saturday. Still stung by earlier performances in the Octagon, Horn plans to show UFC fans the fighter that beat Trevor Prangley and Chael Sonnen — not the guy that got bullied and battered by former UFC Light Heavyweight Champion Chuck Liddell.
In the past year, there has been only one fighter that gave current UFC Middleweight Champion Anderson Silva a scare – at least momentarily. In the beginning of that fight, Marquardt seemingly made it look easy, taking Silva down to the canvas and repeatedly pressuring him. Silva, being the champion that he is, didn’t panic under pressure and exploded for a TKO win. With a new year comes a new start, but that start isn’t easy. Fighting a veteran like Jeremy Horn, a jiu-jitsu wizard, poses quite a few problems.
Looking at a fight on paper, people can usually tell who the favorite is going to be, but this is one of those unusual times where both fighters are virtually even. Breaking down this fight, there is not an advantage or disadvantage to either fighter that jumps out. Marquardt is stronger and probably has better takedowns; Horn has crazy flexibility and may have a slight edge in submissions. Marquardt has heavier hands, but Horn is a capable striker, whose chin survived Liddell’s bombs for nearly four rounds.
Both fighters will be leery of each other’s ground game, so expect this fight to stay standing – each fighter feels they have the advantage in that department. If this fight does end up going to the canvas, look forward to a mental chess match between two sensational jiu-jitsu practitioners.
Likely to go the distance? Yes
Method of finish? Unanimous Decision
Ricardo Almeida vs. Rob Yundt
People may not know much about either of these fighters, but a strong performance on Pay-Per-View could change all that.
Finally, after stepping away from fighting for three years, Almeida will make his long anticipated return back to the UFC. Out of action since May of 2004, it will be interesting to see if that long layoff impacts Almeida’s fighting ability.
UFC newcomer Rob Yundt comes to the Octagon with a 7-0 pro record, but he also comes in on three days’ notice, having replaced Alan Belcher, who was forced to pull out of the fight this week due to Bronchitis.
Yundt is known for his wrestling and aggressiveness, and given the late notice, he will probably be best served by pressing the action early in order to end the fight fast and avoid going into the late rounds. Almeida (8-2) is most comfortable on the ground though, and he will have no problem bringing it to the canvas right away in order to try to end the fight with his world-class submission skills.
Likely to go the distance? No
Method of finish? Submission
Gleison Tibau vs. Tyson Griffin
Fighting out of Las Vegas, Griffin looks to build on the raging success he had in 2007. In 2007, Griffin scored two major wins, beating Clay Guida and Thiago Tavares in exciting fashion. In each of those action-packed fights, Griffin (10-1) demonstrated the stamina to go the distance, and he will look to impose his brutal brand of ground and pound on Tibau come Saturday night.
Starting his UFC career in the welterweight division, Tibau quickly dropped weight after his TKO defeat to Nick Diaz. Since moving down in weight, Tibau (27-3) has gone on a three-fight win streak in the UFC (four overall) and has looked like a completely different fighter. Beating Griffin would raise a lot of eyebrows and serve notice that he is a force to be reckoned with in the 155-pound division.
Don¹t expect to see either of these fighters on their feet for a long period of time. Both fighters’ strengths are on the ground. For Griffin, expect to see him in top position trying to land vicious elbows in hope of ending the fight. On the other hand, Tibau will try and wait for an opportunity to capitalize on a mistake by Griffin, in hopes of catching him in a submission.
Likely to go the distance? Yes
Method of finish? Decision
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